Chybová zpráva

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O projektu V4

Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe: impact of visa abolition

About the project:
The project is aimed at examination of migration patterns in Eastern European states bordering the EU (Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus) in the perspective of expected emigration to the EU (with particular emphasis on emigration to V4) after possible visa abolition. It focuses on qualitative and quantitative estimation of migration stocks of Eastern European states to the EU and V4 in the forthcoming 10 years. Research of that kind has never been conducted with regard to Eastern Partnership states.
The investigation of various, often contradictory and not comprehensive data, does not allow for a projection of migration flows between Eastern Europe and the EU. Meanwhile, an urgent question arises whether the possible EU decision to abolish visa for the Eastern European citizens will and to which extent influence both permanent and temporary migration to the EU countries. The other, more long-term query (and with particular significance for the Visegrad states who face the challenge of changing its migratory status to net immigration states) pertain to the relations between future migration and forecast economic and demographic variables in both receiving and sending states.
The main questions to be answered during project implementation are following: 1)how will the migration dynamics between Eastern Europe and the EU possibly change in ten-years perspective?; 2) What could be the role of Visegrad states in these migration movements?; 3) Could EU decision to abolish visas increase Eastern European migration stocks and flows in the EU?; 4)What could be the possible influence of EU labour markets opening on the size and directions of discussed migration stocks?; 5) Does a direct long-term link between migration stocks and demographic variables (total population growth and age structure) as well economic variables (GDP per capita and unemployment rate) exist in an examined case?; 6) What is the significance of political factors (eventual political-economic break down, possible armed conflict, progress in integration with Russia) for EU/V4-Eastern European migration flows?
The project is expected to bring about innovatory forecasting research based on cross-cutting methodology with high practical usefulness.
Over last twenty years Eastern Europe has witnessed unprecedented migration, mainly of economic character. The issue of Eastern European labour mobility has been highly politicized and unreliable estimations rooted for good, even in the expert community. Moreover, the assessment of migration risk constitutes the key element of visa liberalisation process with the EU. Thus Eastern European migration phenomenon requires new methodological approach based on clear linkage with demographic and economic variables that would also take into account already existing European knowledge (Visegrad states experience before they acceded the EU, EU-Western Balkans mobility cooperation) on links between mobility and visa abolishment and labour market opening.
Target groups:
Expert and scientific community, governmental institutions (Ministries of Interior, Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Ministries of Labour and Social Policy, Border Police and others) in both V4 and EaP states; EU institutions, particularly the EC (in charge of visa liberalisation process under EaP). The EaP project partners could advantage from cooperation with most prominent V4 research institutions.
Groups benefiting:
Civil societies and governments of Ukraine, Moldova and Belarus who will obtain well designed instrument for future migration flows projection. V4 governments and societies could obtain unbiased assessment of risks and advantages arising from eventual visa and labour market liberalisation for the Eastern European citizens.
Project's implementation period:
from 05.2013 to 05.2014
Main coordinator:
Centre for Eastern Studies (Ośrodek Studiów Wschodnich), Warsaw, Poland
Marta Jaroszewicz
Project partners:
Research Centre of the Slovak Foreign Policy (Bratislava),
GEOMIGRACE, Faculty of Science, Charles University (Prague)
Hungarian Institute of International Affairs (Budapest)
Institute for Economic Research and Political Consulting (Kyiv)
Belarusian Institute for Strategic Studies (Minsk)
Institute for Development and Social Initiatives (IDIS) „Viitorul” (Chisinau).